Last fall when we predicted the U.S. lean hogs would reach $1.10 (at the time summer lean hog futures were $90).We contemplated if lean hogs would reach $1.20.We thought there was a chance but to be honest we thought it was beyond crazy to think it could happen.Well we were wrong, we weren´t bullish enough.June closed at $120.50 last Friday.The lack of sow herd expansion, and lower beef supply all compounded by at least 5 million pigs dying of PED has to the opportunity of profits of $100 per head this summer.This is truly the Year of The Pig Farmer.It´s a red hot inferno!
去年秋天，我们预测美国的瘦肉猪价格将会达到1.1美元。（当时的夏季瘦肉猪期货价格为90美分。）我们一度认为瘦肉猪价格将会达到1.2美元。我们认为会有机会，但是说实话，我们认为这个想法很疯狂。好吧，我们错了，我们不够乐观。上周五，六月期货收报1.205美元。由于没有母猪群的扩张、牛肉供应量低以及猪流行性腹泻导致至少500万头猪死亡，今年夏天每头猪有机会获得100美元的利润。这才是真正的养猪年。市场相当火爆！
The Pig Farmers that stuck it out and believed when the banker didn´t, the wife wondered, the children thought crops were more golden have the chance of a generation to bury debt and replenish equity.We salute all the survivors who hung in when there were many doubters.
养猪户们坚持了下来。在银行家不相信、老婆怀疑、小孩认为种植业更赚钱的时候，他们相信偿还债务、增加资产的机会来了。我们向那些质疑声中坚持下来的幸??存者致敬。
Other Observations
其他观察
U.S. hog marketing´s last week were estimated a 2.072 million down 120,000 from the same week a year ago.
美国上周出栏生猪约为207.2万头，比去年同期水平减少12万头。
U.S. cattle marketing numbers last week 548,000 down 50,000 from the same week a year ago.
上周美国牛出栏数为54.8万头，比去年同期减少5万头。
Put the cattle and hog numbers together and we end up with millions of lbs less red meatyear over year. Less meat will always lead to higher prices.
把牛和猪的数字累加起来，我们比去年同期少了数百万磅的红肉。肉量下降一定会带来价格上涨。
DTN –Agdayter Feeder Pig Livestock Margin calculates you can pay $113 for a 45 lb. pig marketed in July.
根据DTN网站的生长猪利润计算器，7月出栏的45磅生长猪价格将为113美元左右。
Last Thursday 53-54% U.S. lean hogs were $102.97 a lb.A year ago $76.41.Almost $60 more per head year over year.
上周四，53-54％的美国瘦肉猪价格为每磅102.97美元。去年为76.41美元。每头猪同比增加约60美元。
Last week´s U.S.D.A. cash early wean price was $88.87 and 40 lb. feeder pigs $114.03 (very close to the $113 DTN calculates can be paid).
上周，美国农业部的早期断奶猪现货价格为88.87美元，而40磅生长猪的价格为114.03美元（非常接近于DTN网站计算的113美元）。
Travel
旅行
This coming week we will be in Denmark, Germany, and Italy.We will write some observations in the next commentary.
接下来的一周，我们将到丹麦、德国和意大利。我们将在接下来的评论中描述我们观察到的情况。
Choice Genetics U.S.A. Bankruptcy
美国Choice遗传公司破产
The Choice Genetics LLC USA bankruptcy continues with $21.8 million in debts, with $14 million due to unsecured creditors, and $486,000 in assets.Where this shakes out is anyone´s guess but it´s hard to spin this as a small blip and business as usual.We are aware of producers taking other roads for genetic supply.Why wouldn´t they – a bankrupt company? Warranties? Service? Supply? Genetic Development?It will be interesting to see if Group Grimaud the French owners of Choice Genetics will make good to the U.S. creditors or put up a white flag?
美国Choice遗传有限责任公司的破产案仍在继续。共有2180万负债，其中1400万属于无担保的债权人，资产有48.6万美元。这展现的是大家的猜测，而不能把这起事件看成和往常一样的小事件。我们意识到生产者们正在寻求其他的种猪供应商。他们怎么可能不这么做。去找一家破产的公司？品质保证？服务?供应？遗传改良？让我们等着瞧Choice遗传的控制人法国克里莫集团是否会对美国的债权人发善心或举白旗。
Hog Market
生猪市场
We are not sure there is much further upside to the summer market.Already we are at the highest prices in history.One of the downsides (if there is) of this market is the margin calls producers who have hedged more had to cower.We expect there has been $10´s of millions in margin calls.Some leaders have been quite aggressive in pushing producers to hedge, hopefully they will continue to finance the strategy they encouraged and to some extent mandated.
我们不确定夏季的市场会上扬多少。目前我们正处于历史最高价格。这个行情的一个不利方面是（如果这算的话），那些套期保值做得太多的生产者将不得不应付的追加保证金通知。我们预期追加的保证金在千万美元级别。一些行业领袖过去积极推动生产者套期保值，希望他们能继续对他们鼓励的这一策略进行资助。
Sow herd expansion we think has not happened to a great extent.Some empty sow units are being restocked in USA-Canada.We guess 20-30,000 sows in this group.We do not believe many more sow units are being built.PED has had all of the top 25 largest producers in the U.S. This in itself has created a significant amount of time and energy to manage.It is a crisis scenario.A scenario that doesn´t lead to real expansion.
出现了部分母猪群的扩张，但我们认为范围并不大。在美国/加拿大的一些空置的母猪场正在补栏。我们猜这一次有2~3万头母猪。我们不相信有更多的母猪场正在建设。猪流行性腹泻已经影响了美国最大的25家养猪公司。这本身就需要大量的管理时间和精力。这是一个危机。不会出现真正的扩张。
